National intelligence agencies have long adjusted to the opportunities and threats from new technologies, and have created structures, concepts, and practices to best apply new capabilities. But such recent technological developments as artificial intelligence are different in kind. Increasingly affordable to nongovernmental actors, they are powerful enough to overwhelm and marginalize much of what agencies do. In The Future of National Intelligence: How Emerging Technologies Reshape Intelligence Communities, Shay Hershkovitz argues that only with a new paradigm can these agencies take up this fundamentally new technological challenge.
Shay Hershkovitz is senior research fellow at the Intelligence Methodology Research Center in Israel.
Introduction: Technology and Systemic Change
Chapter 1: Intelligence and Technology in Historical Context
Chapter 2: Emerging Threats
Chapter 3: The Technological Challenge to Intelligence Agencies
Chapter 4: Emerging Technologies and the National Intelligence Enterprise
Chapter 5: Intelligence Professionals and Decisionmakers – a Collaborative Approach
Chapter 6: Opening the Closed Intelligence System
Chapter 7: Intelligence and Civic Engagement: Emphasizing Collaboration
Chapter 8: TEMPINT - A New Intelligence Paradigm
Chapter 9: Intelligence in the time of Corona
Chapter 10: The 5c’s of Intelligence Transformation
About the Author
Dr. Hershkovitz has produced one of the best ‘future of intelligence’ books that I have read. He insightfully assesses the current state of national intelligence and offers achievable prescriptions for moving forward. Hershkovitz’s book comes at an important time because, as he notes, intelligence is at a historical crossroads. The decisions made by intelligence leaders today will have consequences for decades, and this book should be their guide.
As technology continues to advance, government officials and scholars around the world are struggling to understand and evaluate national intelligence. Dr. Hershkovitz’s book provides us with a sophisticated way of understanding how technology impacts intelligence, thus enabling strategists to design the transformation of intelligence systems in a way that harnesses technology effectively. Hershkovitz makes a significant contribution to our understanding on what is perhaps the most important challenge facing many national intelligence systems: how to ensure that governments use technology effectively to develop the knowledge needed to make the best decisions.
This pioneering book comes at the right moment. We live in the Age of Information, dominated by computer technologies. Hershkovitz offers a clear and insightful analysis of the impact of these new technologies on national intelligence. A must read for current analysts.
Hershkovitz is an experienced intelligence expert who deeply understands the implications of new technologies on national intelligence. In his illuminating book, he proposes important principles as a compass to navigate in the intelligence world to meet the challenges.
Although a year old, the book deserves current attention as the IC seeks to implement the new National Intelligence Strategy, learn lessons from the Ukraine war, and prepare itself for technologic changes and geopolitical threats posed mostly by a rising China. Hershkovitz is hardly the first to state the concerns so starkly. As the pace and breadth of the digital revolution became manifest over the past several years, thinktanks, scholars and public officials have all sounded the alarm about the looming deficiencies in our IC.