In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections, Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2020 edition of this classic text, Lichtman applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2020 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!
Allan J. Lichtman teaches history at American University in Washington, D.C. He is a regular political analyst for CNN Headline News and also provides political commentary for national networks and newspapers. He is the author of White Protestant Nation: The Rise of the American Conservative Movement.He has published more than one hundred scholarly and popular articles that have appeared in suchjournals and newspapers as the American Historical Review, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, New Republic, Washington Monthly, New York Times, Washington Post, Christian Science Monitor, and Los Angeles Times.
Chapter 1: Logic of the Keys: How Presidential Elections Really WorkChapter 2: Turning the Keys to the PresidencyChapter 3: Civil War and ReconstructionChapter 4: The Gilded AgeChapter 5: Rise and Fall of ProgressivismChapter 6: Depression, War, and Cold WarChapter 7: New Directions, War, and ScandalChapter 8: The Reagan and BeyondChapter 9: A False Dawn for Democrats: 1996-2004Chapter 10: The Winds of Political Change: 2008Chapter 11: Stability in the White House 2012Chapter 12: The Obama Legacy Repudiated: Where the Keys Stand for 2020Chapter 13: Lessons of the Keys: Toward a New Presidential Politics
This intriguing study offers a radical system for determining in advance the winners of American presidential elections, a system integrating historical analysis and mathematical pattern-recognition methods.
Of the hundreds of books written about presidential elections, one of the best is Allan J. Lichtman's The Keys to the White House.
An important reminder to all of us, professional political analysts and interested citizens and observers alike, that fundamentals matter. Presidential elections are not personality contests or astrological events. Rational forces drive presidential election outcomes and nobody does a better job of making that case than Lichtman does.
8/5/20: Author featured in video for The New York Times predicting the 2020 election and explaining his process, “He Predicted Trump’s Win in 2016. Now He’s Ready to Call 2020.”
8/5/20: New York Times video covered in separate story for USA TODAY (21m UVPM); “Professor Allan Lichtman, who has accurately predicted elections since 1984, says Biden will win,”