Presidential Swing States

Second Edition

Edited by David A Schultz and Rafael Jacob - Contributions by Scott L. McLean; Sean D. Foreman; Donna R. Hoffman; Christopher W. Larimer; Dante J. Scala; David F. Damore; Rebecca D. Gill; Sean Trende; Robert R. Preuhs; Norman Provizer; Andrew Thangasamy; Christopher A. Cooper; H. Gibbs Knotts; John J. McGlennon; David A. Dulio; John S. Klemanski; Rafael Jacob; Christopher Borick; Neil Kraus; Aaron C. Weinschenk; Kate Kenski; Amy Fried; James P. Melcher and David A. Schultz

The 2020 United States presidential race is arguably already over except for about 12 states and 20 counties. If recent presidential election trends are any indication of what will happen in 2020, Democrats in Texas and Republicans in New York might as well stay home on election day because their votes will matter little in the presidential race. The same might be said for voters in most states and counties in the United States. Conversely, for those in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, and a handful of other states, every vote matters. These states will be battered with a barrage of presidential candidate visits, commercials, political spending, and countless stories in the media. This book analyzes why the presidential race has been effectively reduced to about a dozen states and 20 counties. Contributors to this volume make substantial updates and additions in light of the 2016 and in anticipation of the 2020 presidential elections, including 6 new chapters exploring why some states are swingers in presidential elections, capable of being won by either of the major candidates. The volume also adds a chapter examining important swing counties throughout the country. Presidential Swing States describes what makes these few states and counties unique and why the presidency is decided by who wins them. With cases studies written by prominent political scientists who are experts on these swing states, Presidential Swing States also explains why some states have been swingers but no longer are, why some are swinging, and which states may become the ones that decide the presidency.

Lexington Books

Pages: 514 • Trim: 6 x 8¾

978-1-4985-6588-2 • Paperback • May 2019 • $57.99 • (£45.00)

Subjects: Political Science / American Government / State, Political Science / General, Political Science / American Government / National, Political Science / Political Process / Campaigns & Elections, Political Science / Political Process / Political Parties

Presidential Swing States

Second Edition

Paperback

Summary

The 2020 United States presidential race is arguably already over except for about 12 states and 20 counties. If recent presidential election trends are any indication of what will happen in 2020, Democrats in Texas and Republicans in New York might as well stay home on election day because their votes will matter little in the presidential race. The same might be said for voters in most states and counties in the United States. Conversely, for those in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, and a handful of other states, every vote matters. These states will be battered with a barrage of presidential candidate visits, commercials, political spending, and countless stories in the media. This book analyzes why the presidential race has been effectively reduced to about a dozen states and 20 counties. Contributors to this volume make substantial updates and additions in light of the 2016 and in anticipation of the 2020 presidential elections, including 6 new chapters exploring why some states are swingers in presidential elections, capable of being won by either of the major candidates. The volume also adds a chapter examining important swing counties throughout the country. Presidential Swing States describes what makes these few states and counties unique and why the presidency is decided by who wins them. With cases studies written by prominent political scientists who are experts on these swing states, Presidential Swing States also explains why some states have been swingers but no longer are, why some are swinging, and which states may become the ones that decide the presidency.

Details

Lexington Books

Pages: 514 • Trim: 6 x 8¾

978-1-4985-6588-2 • Paperback • May 2019 • $57.99 • (£45.00)

Subjects: Political Science / American Government / State, Political Science / General, Political Science / American Government / National, Political Science / Political Process / Campaigns & Elections, Political Science / Political Process / Political Parties

Author

David A. Schultz is professor of political science at Hamline University.

Rafael Jacob is post-doctoral fellow at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair's Center for U.S. Studies and instructor at the University of Ottawa's School of Political Studies.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Purple Battlegrounds: Presidential Campaign Strategies and Swing State Voters
Scott L. McLean

Part I: The “Classic” Swing States

Chapter 2: Florida: Still the Largest Swing State
Sean D. Foreman

Chapter 3: Iowa: Still Swinging After All These Years
Donna R. Hoffman and Christopher W. Larimer

Chapter 4: New Hampshire as a Swing State
Dante J. Scala

Chapter 5: Nevada: A Swing State No More? Demographic and Political Change in the Silver State
David F. Damore and Rebecca D. Gill

Chapter 6: Ohio
Sean Trende

Part II: The “Recent” Swing States

Chapter 7: Still Contesting Colorado? The Politics of the 2016 Election in Colorado
Robert R. Preuhs, Norman Provizer, and Andrew Thangasamy

Chapter 8: North Carolina: Still Swingin’ in the South
Christopher A. Cooper and H. Gibbs Knotts

Chapter 9: Virginia: Demography Drives the Old Dominion’s Destiny
John J. McGlennon

Part III: The “New-Found” Swing States

Chapter 10: Michigan: Hiding Behind a Thin Blue Wall
David A. Dulio and John S. Klemanski

Chapter 11: Keys to the Keystone State: Pennsylvania’s Return as a Premier Swing State
Rafael Jacob and Christopher Borick

Chapter 12: A Blue State Turns Red: The Future of Wisconsin Politics in the Aftermath of the Surprising 2016 Election
Neil Kraus and Aaron C. Weinschenk

Part IV: The “Emerging” Swing States?

Chapter 13: Arizona: Right of Center with Potential to Change
Kate Kenski

Chapter 14: The “Two Maines” in a (Potentially) New Swing State
Amy Fried and James P. Melcher

Chapter 15: The Loyal Blue State of Minnesota: Turning Purple
David A. Schultz

Chapter 16: Swing Counties in Presidential Elections
David A. Schultz

Reviews

Anyone hoping to do analysis leading up to or explaining the outcome of the 2020 presidential election would be well served to read Schultz and Jacob’s Presidential Swing States. Though dealing with more states than the first edition, this second edition does not overemphasize the earlier work's strict (and somewhat confusing) definitions. As such, it seems clearer and serves as a road map or, better yet, a travel guide to the states that may play a determining role in the outcome of the next election. Gone from this edition is any confusion about the number of states being discussed, but added is a separate chapter that explores a number of specific, key counties that may be even more determinative of the 2020 outcome in an especially close contest. . . this edition of Presidential Swing States will be of great value for the amateur political analyst as well as the seasoned professional.

Summing Up: Recommended. Graduate students, faculty, and professionals.
— Choice Reviews

Presidential Swing States is a welcome addition to the scholarship on parties and elections. The highly accomplished authors of this volume will enable students, scholars and journalists to better comprehend the state of play in the ten competitive states that dominate contemporary presidential politics. Combining insightful analysis and thorough research, they shed light on the raw and disruptive partisanship that has divided the country and tested the national resolve.
— Sidney M. Milkis, University of Virginia

It's early, but the most indispensable guide to the next presidential election has arrived. Both the treasure trove of data and the analyses of state-by-state voting patterns make this the book to keep close by as the 20202 campaign begins; it might even help prevent the widespread misreading of the last one.
— Jeff Greenfield, Author/ journalist

Presidential Swing States is a spot-on insider’s guide to the outcome of what is sure to be a tumultuous 2020 presidential campaign. A few states – the swing states – will determine the winner. These states may not be the most populous, but they are the most important, and this book explains why and what to look for in each of them as the 2020 election nears.
— Tom W. Rice, The University of Iowa

Presidential Swing States

Second Edition

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Second Edition

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