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War With Iran

Political, Military, and Economic Consequences

Geoffrey Kemp and John Allen Gay

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War With Iran: Political, Military and Economic Consequences provides readers both a history of Iran’s relationship with the West and an expert’s estimation of what the political, human and financial costs of full-scale war with Iran might be. Authors Geoffrey Kemp and John Allen Gay of the Center for the National Interest utilize their years studying and informing America’s foreign policy in the Middle East to bring to life the possible outcomes of an American military intervention in Iran. Such a decision would not only have catastrophic consequences on the Persian Gulf, but would also endanger the whole world’s delicate economy by heightening instability in a fragile but resource-rich region. Written for anyone with an interest in the future of American foreign policy, War With Iran explores what every player has at stake in the current crisis by analyzing every tension adjacent to it; from America’s staunch support of Israel to Iran’s own dogged pursuit of advanced nuclear capabilities. Controversial, timely and thoroughly researched, this story stands as a preliminary caution against what would be a devastating meltdown of diplomacy, for which—if peace be the goal—there is always time.


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Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
Pages: 264Size: 6 3/8 x 9 3/8
978-1-4422-2199-4 • Hardback • February 2013 • $99.00 • (£65.00)
978-1-4422-2197-0 • Paperback • February 2013 • $46.00 • (£31.95)
978-1-4422-2198-7 • eBook • February 2013 • $45.99 • (£31.95)
John Allen Gay is assistant editor of The National Interest magazine.

Geoffrey Kemp is the Director of Regional Strategic Programs at the Center for the National Interest. He has had a long career in academic and research communities, and was Special Assistant to President Reagan and Senior Director for the Near East and South Asia on the National Security Council staff..

Chapter 1: Positions of Primary Actors
The United States
Alternative Means of Destruction
Lebanese Hezbollah
Oil Prices and Iran’s Economy
Action in the Strait of Hormuz
Chapter 9: Economic Consequences
Wider Economic Factors
Growth Patterns and Oil Markets
Oil Price Increases and Supply Interruption
Oil Price Increases and Economic Recovery
Threats to the Dollar
Alternatives to the Dollar?
However
Impacts in the Middle East
Regional Conflicts
American Trade
The Impact of the Sanctions
Conclusions
Chapter 10: Conclusions: The Challenge of Getting Out, the Costs of Staying Home
Exit Strategy for War with Iran
Internal Political Impacts
The Cost of Inaction
Conclusions
Appendices
Bibliography
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