AEI Press
Pages: 118
•
Trim: 6 x 9
978-0-8447-7235-6 • Hardback • October 2012 • $70.00 • (£54.00)
978-0-8447-7237-0 • eBook • October 2012 • $66.50 • (£51.00)
Dan Blumenthal is a current commissioner and former vice chairman of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, where he directs efforts to monitor, investigate, and provide recommendations on the national security implications of the economic relationship between the two countries. Previously, he was senior director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia in the Secretary of Defense's Office of International Security Affairs and practiced law in New York prior to his government service. At AEI, in addition to his work on the national security implications of U.S.-Sino relations, he coordinates the Tocqueville on China project, which examines the underlying civic culture of post-Mao China.
Phillip Swagel, an economist and academic, was assistant secretary for economic policy at the Treasury Department from 2006 to 2009. He has also served as chief of staff and senior economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers and as an economist at the Federal Reserve Board and the International Monetary Fund. He is concurrently a professor of international economics at the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy. He has previously taught at Northwestern University, the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, and Georgetown University. Mr. Swagel works on both domestic and international economic issues at AEI.
Contents
Introduction 1
1. China’s Rise to Rivalry 8
Why China’s Rise Matters: U.S. Interests in the Asia-Pacific 8
What is a Rival in the Twenty-First Century?
What is a Responsible Great Power? 11
Why China Behaves as a Strategic Rival:
The Domestic Sources of Rival Behavior 15
Conclusion 28
2. The U.S.-China Relationship: A Security
Analyst’s Assessment 35
The Military Indicators of Rival Behavior 35
The Political Indicators of Rival Behavior 45
Conclusion 52
3. The U .S.-China Relationship: An Economist’s Assessment 58
Broad U.S. Economic Interests with China 62
Responsible vs. Irresponsible Chinese Behavior 67
Near-Term Shared Interests, Long-Term Rivalry? 71
Conclusion 76
4. Potential Long-Term Outcomes: Three Scenarios
for China’s Future 80
Scenario 1: Optimistic 83
Scenario 2: Somewhat Pessimistic 92
Scenario 3: Very Pessimistic 95
Conclusion 99
5. Dealing with China in the Future 101
The Task for U.S. Policy 102
About the Authors